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The Butterfly Effect

Butterfly Effect

A malachite butterfly lands on the face of a girl during a photoshoot to highlight the ‘Sensational Butterflies’ exhibition at the Natural History Museum in London, in 2015. CARL COURT/GETTY IMAGES

“The butterfly effect is the idea that small, seemingly trivial events may ultimately result in something with much larger consequences – in other words, they have non-linear impacts on very complex systems. For instance, when a butterfly flaps its wings in India, that tiny change in air pressure could eventually cause a tornado in Iowa.”

From <https://science.howstuffworks.com/math-concepts/butterfly-effect.htm>

“What used to get me into trouble when I was a little person in junior school – my imagination and propensity to dream, was a trailer to the upcoming blockbuster of my life.”

I personally do not have the scientific know-how to be able to agree or disagree with the statement of the “Butterfly Effect” above, But I can attest to the statement about the little boy.

How many children in their early school years are berated and ridiculed by their teachers, laughed at by classmates, simply because of their inordinate focus on unnurtured imagination, too often passed off as ‘dreamers’? Resulting in the loss of what might otherwise have been a potential ‘blockbuster of life’ in later years. The ‘little things’ which happen in earlier lives can have catastrophic effects in later lives.

What about the massive drive to ‘save the planet’ as the world reels with the effects of various abuses by humanity on our world’s ecosystem? These abuses have been surreptitiously attacking our planet whilst we unknowingly go about our daily lives. They started off maybe a hundred years or so ago, with the introduction and growth of the industrial revolution and mass production of all manner of goods, some necessary, many not; some beneficial to humanity, many not. Probably the greater proportion assailing our ecosystem.

Fateme Alaie
@banuuu

This brings me to the question; if all the above has been taking place little by little in the past, what is there that you and I can do now in the present, to halt the surge of the butterfly effect and heal the damage? There are those of us that are able to start up or join groups that are actively pursuing solutions to the real global pandemic – the assaulting of our planet’s ecosystem. The greater amount of us are unable (hopefully not unwilling) to start up or join these groups, for one reason or another. What about us?

I found the following piece on the same website, which I feel, offers a solution to each and every one of us:

Alessandro Filazzola says that he does wonder about the indirect effects of his personal actions.

“The items I buy, the people I interact with, the things I say, I believe can each have their cascading effects that ripple through society,” he says. “That is why it is important to try and be a good person, to create a positive influence. One thing I also think about is how these indirect effects are often not as small and removed as I believe many would think.”

Alessandro Filazzola, a community ecologist, data scientist, and post-doctorate fellow at the

University of Alberta.

From <https://science.howstuffworks.com/math-concepts/butterfly-effect.htm>

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Lockdown – continued

We may just be able to end the national lockdown safely and re-start the economy – Alan Knott-Craig

BY ALAN KNOTT-CRAIG@GOODTHINGSGUYAPR 7, 2020 70,338 0

Johannesburg, South Africa (7 April 2020) – Alan Knott-Craig wrote an opinion piece that is going viral about how we need to get our minds around why it’s possible to be optimistic about South Africa right now, even during the COVID-19 lockdown.

With all the constant negativity being shared around COVID-19 and lockdown… Knott-Craig’s opinion piece on some of the positives right now is like a breath of fresh air.

He has permitted us to repost it to our readers and we believe it is an incredibly positive outlook in very uncertain times.

Read the full piece below:

South Africa might just get lucky

In February, our country was in bad shape.

Our stock market was over-heated. We were heading for a recession. We were heading for a downgrade. And then COVID-19 happened.

Our stock market collapsed. We’re now in a recession. We’ve now been downgraded.

Before COVID-19, Cyril Ramaphosa was bogged down in ANC political in-fighting, and Eskom was load-shedding every week.

Cyril now has no political opposition, everyone is too busy scrambling to fight the pandemic.

Eskom has stopped load-shedding thanks to the national lockdown easing demand from businesses.

Before progressing, let’s acknowledge that it is possible that this is Armageddon.

Health, economic and political Armageddon. The end.

Millions could die. Millions could lose jobs. Political upheaval could ensue.

Ok, got that.

But it’s also possible that COVID-19 is the best thing to happen to SA since the 2010 Soccer World Cup. South Africa sailed through the Global Financial Crisis thanks to the state-sponsored infrastructure projects for the 2010 World Cup.

We were lucky.

By some bizarre irony, our country’s ongoing battle against TB may just be lucky too.It may just turn out that most South Africans are safe because it’s mandatory to have a Bacillus Calmette–Guérin (BCG) vaccination when they are born to prevent life-threatening TB later on.

“We found that countries without universal policies of BCG vaccination, such as Italy, the Netherlands, and the United States, have been more severely affected compared to countries with universal and long-standing BCG policies,” noted the researchers led by Gonzalo Otazu, assistant professor of biomedical sciences at NYIT.

Let’s compare Spain to Portugal.

Portugal forces BCG vaccinations at birth, Spain doesn’t.

As of 5 April 2020:

  • Portugal: 10,524 cases, 266 deceased. 0.1% infection rate. 2.5% death rate.
  • Spain: 126,128 cases, 13,897 deceased. 0.27% infection rate. 9.5% death rate.

Spaniards are almost 3x more likely to get COVID-19, and 10x more likely to die.

India, like Portugal, administers the BCG vaccine to millions of children soon after birth to combat TB (tuberculosis). And like Portugal, Indian has seen a much lower infection rate, especially when you consider the higher risk of infection due to cramped living conditions and poverty.

And yet the USA, where there are no mandatory BCG vaccinations, has the highest number of infections, in spite of the USA’s being is 4x smaller, 28x richer and 13x less populated than India’s.

Thanks to South Africa’s mandatory BCG vaccination policy, we may just be less affected than many countries in the world.

We may just be able to end the national lockdown and re-start the economy.

Ending the lockdown will benefit SA in seven ways:

  1. Millions of jobs will be saved. Millions of families will be rescued from economic hardship.
  2. Universal BCG vaccination gives our country a comparative advantage over countries that don’t, i.e.: all developed countries, and all developing countries that don’t have the systems and/or economic means to enforce mandatory vaccinations.
  3. Cyril Ramaphosa can use the economic crisis as leverage to implement the much-needed structural economic reforms our country needs, without the ANC in-fighting that has previously hamstrung his efforts.
  4. People have opened their eyes to the power of online education. No need to have the world’s best math teacher living in Butterworth. No need to print and deliver millions of textbooks. No matter where you live, you can have a world-class education (assuming you have affordable broadband).
  5. Less flying and driving. Even the most hide-bound of executives have now been forced to telecommute. Turns out it ain’t so hard. Good for traffic. Good for the climate.
  6. It means Eskom’s grid can take a breather whilst essential maintenance is carried out and IPP’s prepare for selling directly to customers, reducing our reliance on Eskom, ultimately creating a stronger and more resilient power grid.
  7. It means the Moody and Fitch downgrades are pretty meaningless. Everyone is being downgraded.

Ending the national lockdown will be the best thing that our government can do to save our economy.

If the positive scenario pans out, South Africa will be the equivalent of a golfer hitting a duck hook into the water, ricocheting off a submerged rock, bouncing back to the green, and the ball coming to rest three feet from the pin.

We may just be pretty damn lucky.

The whole world is in it together, but, by some miracle, South Africa might be the best place to be in it.

Sources: Opinion Piece – Alan Knott-Craig 

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We all need to hear positive words about our country’s current status. Even if you do not agree with a particular opinion, its a lot better than the negative vomit that we are receiving from all over the place.

Share this if you think it might lift another person’s spirits.